July 11, 2005

 

Lead Stories

 

The Rich Boys

An ultra-secretive network rules independent oil trading. Its mentor: Marc Rich

One brisk day last fall, globe-trotting oil executive Benjamin R. Pollner was leaving his luxury prewar apartment building on Manhattan's Park Avenue when detectives from Manhattan District Attorney Robert M. Morgenthau's office approached. They began asking him about his alleged involvement in the unfolding U.N. Oil-for-Food scandal. Pollner, a tall, lean sixtysomething who wears European-cut clothes and a world-weary visage, was taken aback, say investigators familiar with the incident.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_29/b3943080.htm

 

Hedge fund performance anemic in first half of 2005

S&P’s hedge fund index inches into positive territory

http://www.investmentexecutive.com/client/en/News/DetailNews.asp?Id=29602&IdSection=1&cat=1

 

Barclay Group: Hedge Funds and CTAs Strong in June

Barclay/GHS Index Up 1.79%, CTAs Up 1.56%

Fairfield, Iowa, July 7, 2005 -- The Barclay Group released today the Barclay Index Flash Estimates for June 2005. With more than 1200 funds reporting June returns, the Barclay/Global HedgeSource Hedge Fund Index is up 1.79 percent, and the Barclay CTA Index is up 1.56 percent. Barclay is the world’s leading provider of hedge fund and managed futures data.

http://www.barclaygrp.com/

 

London financial institutions back to work

Normal trading resumes on London Metal Exchange; UBS to reopen office near blast site

http://www.investmentexecutive.com/client/en/News/DetailNews.asp?Id=29595&IdSection=15&cat=15

 

Market Risk - Terror Impact on Financial Markets Diminishes with Experience

http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2005-07-11-11132.html

 

Media See Hedge Fund Managers Smarter Than Mutual Funds

Financial journalists overwhelmingly believe that hedge fund managers are smarter about the markets than their mutual fund counterparts, though there is growing sentiment that hedge funds are charging too much and growing too fast.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050711/115094.html?.v=1

 

Exchange Sets Volume Record for e-miNYsm Futures Contracts

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/news/press_releas.jsp?id=pr20050708a

 

Watchdog delays LSE takeover findings again

LONDON (Reuters) - The Competition Commission has delayed a provisional ruling on two takeover proposals for the London Stock Exchange (LSE.L: Quote, Profile, Research) by another week.

Last month the Commission said it planned to release provisional findings from its investigation in mid-July but a spokesman for the watchdog said the report was now due for publication in the week ending 29 July.

The Commission had originally planned to release its findings in early July.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-07-11T085859Z_01_MAR132283_RTRUKOC_0_FINANCIAL-LSE.xml

 

Nasdaq to transfer control of OTC market to NASD

New York, July 8 (Reuters) - Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. (NDAQ.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said it plans to move its Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board (OTCBB) business made up of thinly traded stocks to the NASD, the brokerage regulator that still controls it.  The move is part of an effort to restructure Nasdaq to help it achieve stock exchange status, Nasdaq said.

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=governmentFilingsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050708:MTFH87926_2005-07-08_22-16-09_N08417170:1

 

Waddell sees bright future from storied past

No one has written a definitive history of Waddell & Reed Financial Inc. so far as new CEO Henry "Hank" Herrmann knows.

The past three months alone, which have seen the Overland Park company (NYSE: WDR) settle most of its legal tussles and replace longtime Chairman and CEO Keith Tucker, might make for an interesting book. But that wouldn't begin to skim the rich history of one of the country's oldest mutual fund managers and a truly original player in the $8 trillion industry today.   "There aren't a lot of guys like us," said Herrmann, who has worked for Waddell & Reed since 1971. "We're not completely unique, but it's pretty close."

http://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/stories/2005/07/11/focus5.html?from_rss=1

 

Deutsche Boerse's Breuer says CEO candidate reports 'all wrong'

FRANKFURT (AFX) - Deutsche Boerse AG chairman Rolf Breuer told Der Spiegel magazine possible candidates to replace former chief executive Werner Seifert mentioned in recent media reports are "all wrong" and indicated there would be a surprise candidate.

http://www.sharewatch.com/story.php?storynumber=73249

 

Deutsche Boerse to seek appointment of new supervisory board members next week

FRANKFURT (AFX) - Deutsche Boerse AG will in the next few days ask a Frankfurt court to appoint its four new supervisory board members, Welt am Sonntag weekly reported.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=5348414&subject=companies&action=article

 

LSE leader at centre of an unusual tug-of-war 

Ms Furse, 47, took the helm of the LSE in 2001 just after its shareholders - who were also its users - rejected a merger...

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/217fcf92-f1a8-11d9-9c3e-00000e2511c8.html

 

Environmental Trading News

 

For U.S. newspapers, paper prices add to problems

NEW YORK (Reuters) - As if falling circulation, depressed advertising and competition from the Internet aren't enough, newspaper publishers face newsprint prices that are lurching toward four-year highs.

Prices of the paper used to make inexpensive reading material ranging from newspapers to flyers are running at about $605 a ton, up roughly 10 percent from a year ago.  As one of the major costs in publishing -- about 15 percent of cash expenses -- newsprint is causing financial headaches for companies whose shares are already underperforming the broader stock market by an average of 11 percent.

http://news.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=0QBIG3TD5WA14CRBAEKSFEY?type=reutersEdge&storyID=9017579

 

Exchange & ECN News

 

International Securities Exchange Announces New Time for July 28, 2005 Conference Call

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=176358&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=728249&highlight=

 

Exchange to List Additional Year of Coal Futures Contracts

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/news/press_releas.jsp?id=pr20050708b

 

System Documentation (EULA) Changes for the Electronic Submission of Orders to NYMEX including NYMEX miNY(sm) Futures Contracts on NYMEX ClearPort® Trading

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/shareholder/notice_to_member.jsp?id=ntm282&archive=2005

 

Amendments to COMEX Division Rule 104.36, Exchange for Physicals

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/shareholder/notice_to_member.jsp?id=ntm276&archive=2005

 

Amendments to Exchange Rule 8.55 (A)(23): Failure to Supervise

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/shareholder/notice_to_member.jsp?id=ntm275&archive=2005

 

Amendments to Rule 6.90, Trading Card Procedures, Regarding Submission of EFPs by Clerks

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/shareholder/notice_to_member.jsp?id=ntm274&archive=2005

 

Revision to Rule 300.08 ??? Notice of Exercise

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/shareholder/notice_to_member.jsp?id=ntm273&archive=2005

 

One New Listing Joins the NYSE in the Week Ended July 8

http://www.nyse.com/press/1120819473321.html

 

Gaz de France Euronext listing a huge success

http://www.euronext.com/news/press_releases/0,4159,1732_8275,00.html

 

Ifa Systems Starts Trading in the Regulated Unofficial Market at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange

http://deutsche-boerse.com/dbag/dispatch/en/listcontent/gdb_navigation/press/10_Latest_Press_Releases/Content_Files/13_press/pm_news_ifa_systems_110705.htm

 

IIC Licenses iTraxx Indices to Eurex for European iTraxx Credit Derivatives

Eurex and International Index Company to leverage CDS index benchmark success/ Launch of the first exchange-listed credit derivative products planned

http://deutsche-boerse.com/dbag/dispatch/en/listcontent/gdb_navigation/press/10_Latest_Press_Releases/Content_Files/13_press/db_news_eurex_110705.htm

 

Monthly Market report for June 2005

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/about/Newsroom/Market+Reports/2005/Jul05MMR.htm

 

2006 Cycle 3 LEAPS® Rollover

http://www.888options.com/desk/leaps_data/2006_leap_rollover_cycle3.xls

 

SGX reprimands Khoo sisters for breaching rules

Two daughters of the late tycoon Khoo Teck Puat have been taken to task by the Singapore Exchange for failing to discharge their duties as directors of listed firms.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/157002/1/.html

Amex Lists Merrill Lynch 8% Strategic Return Notes Linked to the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index

http://www.amex.com/atamex/news/press/sn_BXA_070805.htm

 

TradeWeb 2nd Quarter Volume Tops $10 Trillion

Thomson TradeWeb, part of The Thomson Corporation , a leading global provider of integrated information solutions to professional customers, announced today that TradeWeb's 2nd quarter volume for its 12 online marketplaces surpassed $10.3 trillion -- up a remarkable 63% from the same period last year.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050711/nym009.html?.v=12

 

RTS passes functional conformance for Liffe/eCBOT Version 9 First ISV To support Linux For LIFFE And eCBOT®

http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/news_story.cfm?id=53931

 

London Stock Exchange: Main Market Has Best Month For IPOs In Four Years

http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/news_story.cfm?id=53928

 

Winnipeg Commodity Exchange Market Report For June 2005 ore

http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/news_story.cfm?id=53918

 

Deutsche Börse Reporter Online – July 2005

http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/news_story.cfm?id=53916

 

TSX Venture Exchange - June 2005 Statistics Report

http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/news_story.cfm?id=53915

 

Filings by Designated Contract Markets (DCMS)
Current Month

Date of Letter

Date Filed

DCM

Description

07/08/2005

07/08/2005

CME

Composition of CME X-Fund Index Futures contracts: No CME X-Funds available for the July 22nd trading cycle.

07/07/2005

07/07/2005

NYMEX

NYMEX Rule 8.55(A)(23)
Effective Monday, July 11, 2005, the Major Offenses category has been changed to reflect that when considering evidence that an employee's violation was a first offense, that the Member or Member Firm took immediate remedial action upon discovering the violation, and that the Member or Member Firm immediately informed the Exchange of the violation be considered a mitigating factor rather than an affirmative defense.

07/07/2005

07/07/2005

NYMEX

NYMEX Rule 6.90
Effective Monday, July 11, 2005, the amendments delineate the guidelines whereby clerks will be permitted to record and submit EFP and EFS transactions on behalf of a floor broker.

07/07/2005

07/07/2005

NYMEX

NYMEX Rule 300.08
Effective Monday, July 11, 2005, the amendment represents a correction to the Rule to reflect that the actual procedural cut-off time for submitting an option notice of exercise was moved from 5:30 p.m. to 4:30 p.m.

07/07/2005

07/07/2005

NYMEX

Listing of One Additional Year for Central Appalachian Coal.

07/06/2005

07/07/2005

HEDGESTREET

HedgeStreet submits additional clarification to the Real-Time Account Funding Program, previously submitted to the Commission on June 9, 2005.

 

Regulatory News

 

The SEC News Digest

The SEC News Digest provides daily information on recent Commission actions, including enforcement proceedings, rule filings, policy statements, and upcoming Commission meetings.

http://www.sec.gov/news/digest/dig070805.txt

 

CFTC Weekly Advisory

http://www.cftc.gov/opa/adv05/opawa28-05.htm

 

BCSC reprimands investment management firm

Toronto firm admits to advising clients in B.C. without being registered

http://www.investmentexecutive.com/client/en/News/DetailNews.asp?Id=29599&IdSection=8&cat=8

 

Guilty plea on criminal charges in U.S. mutual fund probe

Broker engaged in illegal late trading of funds on behalf of hedge fund clients

http://www.investmentexecutive.com/client/en/News/DetailNews.asp?Id=29598&IdSection=1&cat=1

 

Canada’s Securities Regulators Harmonize Exempt Market Rules [CSA]

http://www.bcsc.bc.ca/release.asp?id=2642

 

Operations Risk - Sarbanes-Oxley, How to Avoid Costly Mistakes

http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2005-07-11-11134.html

 

184 financial institutions lose customer data: FSA

_ The number of financial institutions which have lost customers' personal information has come to 184 as of last Friday, the commissioner of the Financial Services Agency said Monday.

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/050711/kyodo/d8b97png1.html

 

Morningstar gets SEC subpoena

The Securities and Exchange Commission has subpoenaed the consulting unit of Morningstar Inc. for information it offered to sellers of retirement plans, the investment research firm said.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/business/cst-fin-morn11.html

 

Managed Futures - Managed Funds

 

Hedge funds: a wild quarter 

The once-high flying funds are struggling to make money as market conditions have gotten tougher. (Full story) 

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Corporate America has had more than its fair share of indictments in the last few years.  Not to be outdone, hedge funds coughed up their fair share of colorful candidates in the white-collar crime canon. While many of the scams were small, some involved large, supposedly sophisticated funds that hoodwinked even professional investors for millions of dollars.  Here's a look at what's happened to the people involved in some of the most memorable hedge fund scandals in recent years.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/07/11/markets/scandal_hedgefunds/

 

German banks warn against HF regulatory arbitrage

July-11-2005 - Harald Noack, deputy director of Germany's commercial banks association the Bundesverband Deutscher Banken, said last week that appropriate regulation of hedge funds is necessary to identify and protect against potential market risks, but that such regulation could be "meaningful" only at the international level, and must include offshore jurisdictions.

http://www.marhedge.com/news/Cover.Hedge.asp?s=HedgeH-2005-07-10-12-57-10p1.htm

 

Kairos rolls out a Baltics fund

July-11-2005 - London-based Kairos Investment Management launched the Kairos North European Fund at the beginning of July

http://www.marhedge.com/news/Cover.Hedge.asp?s=HedgeH-2005-07-10-12-41-27p1.htm

 

Asian hedge fund assets to rise 38 pct in 05-report

HONG KONG, July 11 (Reuters) - Assets in Asian hedge funds should rise 38 percent to $90 billion this year, with plenty of room for more growth as Hong Kong and Singapore are growing rapidly, according to research firm Financial Insights.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/050711/3/3te3b.html

 

Banks vie for hedge fund cash

Competition is heating up among international investment banks vying for the trading business of hedge funds, one of the fastest growing areas in finance.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/stdn/std/Markets/GG11Ag01.html

 

Hedge fund owners paid £10m-plus each

The two owners of Marshall Wace, one of London's largest and most influential hedge funds, paid themselves more than £10m each last year, according to the group's annual report.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7846b8e6-ef45-11d9-8b10-00000e2511c8.html

 

SSGA to grow alternatives “as fast as we can”- FT

IPE.com 11/Jul/05: GLOBAL – State Street Global Advisors plans to grow its alternatives business “as fast as we can”, according to an interview with State Street chief executive Ron Logue in the Financial Times.

http://www.ipe.com/article_default.asp?article=19078

 

NASDAQ Global Funds, Inc. Selects Alps Mutual Funds Services, Inc. To Inform Investment Professionals About Enhanced Portfolio Techniques Using QQQ

http://www.exchange-handbook.co.uk/news_story.cfm?id=53933

 

Reports

 

Bond Talk Today's Events

http://www.bondtalk.com/global.cfm?S=todaysevents

 

USDA Today

http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/TODAY.HTM

 

Miscellaneous News

 

China's currency trade thriving without yuan

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/07/10/business/yuan.php

 

London bombings may bring U.K. interest rate cut

CIBC World Markets says calls for aggressive 50 basis point cut may be heard in August

http://www.investmentexecutive.com/client/en/News/DetailNews.asp?Id=29596&IdSection=16&cat=16

 

Gellman: How to Keep Faith After the Bombs

How the wisdom of Psalm 23 can help us keep faith after the London bombings.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8511912/site/newsweek/

 

TradeStation Group, Inc. Announces The Date For Its 2005 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/prnewswire/2005/07/11/prnewswire200507110740PR_NEWS_B_SET_FL_FLM099.html

 

Stephen Crawford Steps Down As Co-President of Morgan Stanley; Zoe Cruz Named Acting President

http://www.morganstanley.com/cgi-bin/morganstanley.com/pressroom.cgi?action=load&uid=428

 

Morgan Stanley Says Crawford Resigns as Co-President (Update2)

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley said co-President Stephen Crawford, who hitched his career to former Chairman and Chief Executive Philip Purcell, will leave the world's biggest securities firm.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aEVT1h3fowS8

 

ITG Releases June 2005 U.S. Trading Statistics

Investment Technology Group, Inc. , a leading provider of technology-based equity trading services and transaction research, today announced that U.S. trading volume was 2.5 billion shares for the month ended June 30, 2005, averaging 111 million shares per trading day.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050711/nym037.html?.v=16

 

China in Contest with the Great Nations over Global Oil Resources

At a time when oil prices fluctuate between 55 and 60 dollars, as happened last week, and the American light oil price closed, on Friday when Nymex closed on 59.10 dollars per barrel, the focus of the international oil production is on China’s future needs for raw material, particularly the role of its major companies in satisfying the country’s needs.

http://english.daralhayat.com/business/07-2005/Article-20050711-068d8421-c0a8-10ed-00f8-0297ca2a7668/story.html

 

Judge: $100M Suit Against NASD Shows Height of 'Chutzpah'

By suing the National Association of Securities Dealers for $100 million in damages stemming from a disbarment, an ex-lawyer has set a new standard for "courtroom chutzpah," a judge said in dismissing the suit.

http://biz.yahoo.com/law/050711/4f9144da87ef41679becfd61f3871e26.html?.v=1

 

Bear Stearns Named Best Clearing Firm by Waters Magazine

Citing "combined leadership of technological capabilities and human expertise" Waters magazine named Bear Stearns the "Best Clearing" firm in their 2005 annual reader survey. Seven hundred readers from around the world were polled for the 2005 Waters Rankings issue.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050711/115547.html?.v=1

 

Fundamental Brokers Resurrected

Fundamental Brokers, one of the major inter-dealers in the bond market heyday of the 1970s and 1980s, is back in play and fixed-income veteran Vinny Griffo, president, is leading the charge.

http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/default.asp?page=1&SID=524100&ISS=17383&type=23

 

Schwab Says 'I Don't'

http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2005/mft05070805.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y

 

Other Voices

 

Today’s Other Voices contributions are some of the responses I received from readers of this newsletter.  Though the sources are anonymous, they are all known by me or people I know and very reputable.

 

Feedback about Your Open Letter to CBOT Members

 

I agree that from a valuation perspective, they don't gain anything on a valuation basis by short-circuiting the IPO process.

 

I also believe strongly that the CBOT will be sold at some point.  The reason is that, in my opinion, there are possibly HUGE cost savings in an exchange combination.  As you know, the exchange economics are highly "fixed cost-variable revenue"-oriented.  This could represent a several hundred million dollar valuation gain for an acquirer.  CBOT is certainly not in a position to buy any of its three major public derivatives competitors.

 

Beyond the strict "cost synergy," aspect CBOT has huge strategic importance to each of the other three major futures exchanges.  CBOT obviously uses Euronext/LIFFE's matching engine and represents an income stream to them.

 

Eurex has long coveted the US long bond complex and is still trying to gain a foothold in the US.  CME owns the complementary portion of the yield curve and is now CBOT's clearing agent.  Once CBOT is purchased, the best opportunity for a significant add-on via acquisition for each of these exchanges is gone forever.  The remaining best targets (NYMEX & ICE/IPE) are both significantly smaller and represent less of a synergy due to their differences.  To me, having a public security that you can leverage in the context a competitive "auction" process would be highly advantageous to CBOT.

 

Consequently, if I were a seat holder I would worry that if there is no benefit to abandoning my leverage from a shareholder valuation perspective, could the justification be that they could get a more management friendly deal?

 

The only argument I could give for combining with CME prior to being a public company is that they still have a little more control over the process.  They may want to ensure that they are sold to the CME rather than Euronext or Eurex.  While they could still "choose" CME in the context of a competitive auction (think Verizon vs. Qwest in the MCI situation) it's a lot harder to do as a public company.  As a public company, if management chooses a deal that is perceived as better for management, but worse for shareholders, there will be lawsuits against directors for violating fiduciary "Duty of Care" provisions, etc...

 

 

********

 

I hope that the CBOT disregards your well-considered advice and sells out to the Merc. Such an outcome with be good for the Chicago trading community and Chicago.

 

Once the CBOT is public it is still possible, but much harder for management to consider other stakeholders—such as the community and Chicago tradition—as well as the best price in evaluating offers.

 

Exchanges have definite economies of scale and further consolidation makes sense. The CBOT, due to lower growth and no clearing, is a more likely acquiree than acquirer.

 

The risk is that after going public, Eurex, Liffe or NYSE might be willing or able to outbid the CME for the CBOT.

 

I think that the CBOT would be doing a service to the industry, to the traditions of futures, and to Chicago by instead aligning with its “cross-town” rival.

 

 

*******

 

I agree with most of your comments  re: the CBOT IPO but for different reasons.

 

1.  Should the CBOT be considering a merger of sorts with another business entity such as the CME whose shares become the CME's "currency"  the  CBOT must wait until the MARKET determines what its market capitalization is.   To not do so would only mean that either management or the membership  (sometimes privately known as the Flat Earth Society) think that they are more knowledgeable respecting the proper valuation of the CBOT  "A"  ( I believe)  shares.   Yeh .......... right.     Really dumb.

 

2.  People forget that only about 9% of the CBOT's shares will be floated in this IPO.   There is literally a mountain of MBA theses that show that whenever a company floats significantly less than 80% of its shares, they consistently tend to trade at a valuation that is 40% less than the level at which they would trade if all 100% were floated.  [The theory is that minority interests never come with any semblance of governance powers.   Countless family-owned companies have made this mistake.  They would like to raise some cheap equity and see the P/E  ratios of their industry piers.  They float about 40% of the company, retaining the rest to ensure that Little Johnny and his potentially boneheaded siblings will forever be in control of the company.   And then they wonder why the  P/E ratio of their shares is remedial.   DUH .]  I once reminded XXXXX of this phenomenon ........... when the CME "A" shares were privately trading among CME members at around $18.   People should realize that the shares never trade to their fair market value until at least 80% of the shares are free to trade.  

 

3.  Just about everyone has underestimated the branding power of the Chicago Board of Trade moniker.   People in Tasmania know what the CBOT is.   To them, the words Chicago Mercantile Exchange conjure up images of dead turkeys hanging by their feet in an open air market.   The Merc actually blew it in the mid 1980's  when they commissioned a marketing (name recognition) study by a very reputable consulting company.   What came back was that globally, the International Monetary Market had more name recognition sizzle than the Chicago Mercantile Exchange did.   This really p*ssed off the CME members and the exchange changed the marketing budget for just market presence a/k/a name recognition advertising,  beefing  (sorry) up the CME moniker to the detriment of the IMM moniker  (like 99% of their business).   Imagine today how much hotter their stock might be, especially to international investors were they to have stayed with the more descriptive IMM branding.   The absolute dumbest thing that could happen (but on the other hand, the most egotistical thing that could conceivably happen) is that the CME would acquire the CBOT and put it all under the CME moniker.   ;-(]     <gag>  

 

4.  I hope that the CBOT is relying heavily on the advice of outside financial advisors.  I like Bernie and have known Chris Malo for 20 years;  neither of them even begin to know their way around corporate finance issues.  Great industry guys .......... but with NO M&A experience.    

 

*******

 

Good write up on the CBOT    ..     I share your views about the fact that there is nothing that cannot be done after the IPO that can be done before... and the market is keen to buy shares in exchanges.. so they should get a good run if they do the IPO...

 

 

********

 

Selling CME shares at a $10bn valuation and buying CBOT memberships at a sub $2.5bn valuation has to be one of the best futures market spread trades ever.  Not to say CME is overvalued on an absolute basis but it certainly seems that way on a relative basis.    A fully profit oriented CBOT should be worth 60-80% of what CME is worth.  And if volatility shifts from front end of the curve to back, maybe even 90-100% or more.  Are CBOT members so desperate to fully monetize their memberships (or do they lack faith in their mgmt) that they'll sell out to CME for a lot less (and thus hand CME shareholders the value that they'd get if they were just patient!)???

 

John's Comments

 

 

Brent Crude Watch

 

IPE Brent Volume: 160,363

NYMEX Brent Crude Volume: 5324

NYMEX Percent of Total Volume: 3.21%

 

********

 

Chicago Electronic Trading Scorecard for July 8, 2005

 

Percent Electronic

 

CBOT: 63.08%

CME: 74.58%

CME Eurodollars: 88.72%

CME Live Cattle: .27%

CME Currency Products: 85.69%

CBOT Soybeans: 4.28%

 

CBOT Options: 5.63%

CME Options: 10.89%

 

Volume 

 

OneChicago Volume: 13,300

Eurex US Volume: 4140

Euronext.liffe Eurodollar Volume: 14,798

CBOE Futures Exchange Volume: 430

 

Market Share

 

CBOT 100 oz. Gold Volume: 1324

NYMEX 100 oz. Gold Volume: 50,530

CBOT Share: 2.55%

 

CBOT 5000 oz. Silver Volume: 94

NYMEX 5000 oz. Silver Volume: 15,124

CBOT Share: .62%

 

CBOT Mini Gold Volume: 506

CBOT Mini Silver Volume: 308

 

CME Emini Russell 1000 (100X) Volume: 2494

Eurex US Mini Russell 1000 (100X) Volume: 1138

NYBOT Mini Russell 1000 (50X) Volume: 383

CFE Mini Russell 1000 (100X) Volume: 0

 

CME Emini Russell 2000 Volume: 117,313

Eurex US Mini Russell 2000 Volume: 2864

CFE Mini Russell 2000 Volume: 35

 

Notes: The CME traded 97 Lean Hogs on Globex Friday.

 

Liffe Eurodollar Over-Under

 

Liffe/Globex: .92%

Liffe/CME: .81%

 

Regards,

 

John J. Lothian

Publisher

John Lothian Newsletter 

www.johnlothiannewsletter.com

 

Futures Brokerage - Business Intelligence

 

John J. Lothian
President- Electronic Trading Division

The Price Futures Group, Inc.
141 West Jackson Blvd., Suite 1340A
Chicago, IL 60604

jlothian@pricegroup.com
johnlothian@johnlothian.com
IM: LothianJohnJ
http://www.pricegroupetd.com

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