John Lothian's Daily Futures & Securities Industry Newsletter

 

February 12, 2002

 

Lead Stories

 

COMMODITY TRADER AND TWO MICHIGAN COMPANIES CHARGED WITH $2.9 MILLION FRAUD; GOVERNMENT ALLEGES FICTITIOUS TRADING

http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf02/opa4606-02.htm

 

NEW YORK COMMODITY BROKER CHARGED WITH ILLEGAL TRADING AND VIOLATION OF A COMMISSION ORDER

http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf02/opa4605-02.htm

 

Senator Slams SEC Chief on Enron; Lay Due Today (Reuters)
...On Hollings' barbs, SEC spokeswoman Christi Harlan said, "Chairman Pitt has said all along that he now represents the...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020212/ts_nm/enron_dc_22

 

Datek looking for buyer, has E*Trade bid - report (Reuters Securities)
Datek Online Holdings is shopping for a potential buyer, and E*Trade Group Inc. has already submitted a bid, the New York Post
reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the situation.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020212/n12327597_2.html

 

S&P Implements Annual Weightings Changes for the S&P Commodity Index

http://www.nybot.com/pressRelease.asp?releaseID=385

 

NYBOT Announces FCOJ Trading Hours For Last Trading Day

http://www.nybot.com/pressRelease.asp?releaseID=384

 

Eurodollar trading surge lifts CME earnings (Reuters Securities)
Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc., the parent of the world's second largest futures exchange, said Monday a surge in
trading of its Eurodollar contracts and higher clearing and transaction fees boosted fourth-quarter earnings 270 percent.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020211/n11306270_2.html

 

Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation Selects Percussion Software's Rhythmyx Content Manager to Manage 250,000 Content Items
Across Its Enterprise (Business Wire)

... a holding company that oversees two principal subsidiaries, The Depository Trust Company (DTC) and the National Securities
Clearing Corporation (NSCC)....

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/020212/122237_1.html

 

Exchange News

 

CBOT Position Change Bond, Feb 11, 2002 - 02.11.2002
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/www/cont_detail/0,1493,10+24+268+5826,00.html

 

2002 Holiday Schedule - 02.11.2002

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/www/cont_detail/0,1493,10+24+268+5827,00.html

 

CBOT Hosts Crop Report Briefing February 8 - 02.11.2002
Commentaries and analysis on the crop data was provided by John Welsh, Peregrine Financial, and Dan Roose, U.S. Commodities.

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/www/cont_detail/0,1493,10+24+null+5824,00.html

 

IPE EXTENDS NATURAL GAS FUTURES TRADING HOURS

http://www.ipemarkets.com/w1/news/2002/020211.php

 

Karachi stock markets soars, but some are wary of future (AP)
The Karachi bourse is living days of glory with a meteoric 40 percent rise in the index so far this year, but there is now concern that
optimism over Pakistan's new relationship with the United States has pushed stocks up too fast, too soon.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020212/ap_wo_en_bu/pakistan_stock_market_1

 

Regulatory News

 

The SEC News Digest

http://www.sec.gov/news/digest/02-11.txt

 

Ohio Stockbroker Charged with Massive Fraud (Reuters)
...Lehman has a relatively small brokerage business compared to Wall Street rivals Merrill Lynch and Co....

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020211/ts_nm/crime_broker_dc_2

 

Reports

 

Bond Talk Today's Events

http://www.bondtalk.com/global.cfm?S=todaysevents

 

Miscellaneous News

 

Instinet Profit Up on Deep Cost Cuts

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020211/bs_nm/financial_instinet_earns_dc_1

 

Instinet Announces Fourth Quarter and 2001 Results (February 11, 2002)
Instinet Group Incorporated (Nasdaq: INET) today announced net income for the 12 months ended December 31, 2001 of $144.8 million, or $0.63 per share, compared to $148.2 million, or $0.72 per share, in 2000. For the fourth quarter of 2001, net income was $45.7 million, or $0.18 per share, compared to $36.0 million, or $0.17 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2000. Excluding investment gains, restructuring costs and excess insurance recoveries, 2001 full-year and fourth quarter earnings per share
were $0.64 and $0.14, respectively.

http://www.instinet.com/ir/earnings.shtml

 

UBS Warburg Hosts 14th Annual Energy and Utilities Conference (PR Newswire)
...Individual corporate strategy reviews, the future of OPEC cohesion and future commodity price direction, deregulation
trends,......The second panel probes into who could be the eventual winners in the marketing and trading arena with panelist VJ Hogan,
president of TXU Energy Trading;...... financial structuring, fixed income issuance and trading, foreign exchange, derivatives and risk
management....

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020212/nytu030_1.html

 

Merrill Lynch Expands Global Foreign-Exchange Team (Business Wire)
Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. today announced the appointment of three senior traders to its global foreign-exchange business.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/020211/112390_1.html

 

Enron Witnesses Taking Fifth (AP Financial)
...The Securities and Exchange Commission is pursuing a civil inquiry into Enron and Andersen,...... they already have strong evidence
of illegal activity surrounding the failure of the energy-trading company.......``We'll be talking to them in the near future.''..

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020211/enron_investigation_12.html

 

Enron Gives Emerging Market Risk Managers More Reason To Say That America’s Financial System Is Hypocritical

The first few hours of GARP’s 3rd annual risk management convention in New York proved how far the ripple effects of Enron have stretched. Risk managers from both Brazil and Korea explained how the collapse of the energy company has shown that America needs to focus on improving its own corporate governance.

http://www.garp.com//newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2002-02-12-4446.html

 

Debunking the Privacy Myth, Line56

http://www.atmarkets.org/inc/linkcount.asp?id=-1783606873&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eline56%2Ecom%2Farticles%2Fdefault%2Easp%3FNewsID%3D3334

 

Deregulation Offers Chaos for Some, Opportunity for Energration, eyeforenergy

http://www.atmarkets.org/inc/linkcount.asp?id=538600540&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eeyeforenergy%2Ecom%2Fcontent%2

Easp%3Fnews%3D25622

 

UBS Warburg Completes Takeover of Enron Trading, Set to Begin Operations, eyeforenergy

http://www.atmarkets.org/inc/linkcount.asp?id=1831428369&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eeyeforenergy%2Ecom%2Fcontent%2

Easp%3Fnews%3D25618

 

Coalition Forms Against Bush User-fee Proposal 
WASHINGTON (HedgeWorld.com)—The derivatives exchanges and futures commission merchants lined up last week against the proposed user fee on futures

transactions ..

http://www.hedgeworld.com/news/read_news.cgi?section=dail&story=dail6095.html

 

The Giving Tree Is Still in Full Bloom—Hedge Funds Really Do Care

http://www.hedgeworld.com/news/read_news.cgi?section=dail&story=dail6075.html

 

Merrill Lynch HSBC Announces Client Access to Morningstar Canada and Briefing.com

http://www.newswire.ca/releases/February2002/12/c0910.html

 

HSBC Bank Canada 2001 results - highlights

http://www.newswire.ca/releases/February2002/12/c0783.html

 

EU approves ADM buy of Germany's Toepfer (Reuters Securities)
The European Commission on Monday approved plans by Archer Daniels Midland to purchase Alfred C. Toepfer International of Germany.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020211/l11157261_1.html

 

Merrill forms operating committee under O'Neal (Reuters Securities)
Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc., the No. 1 U.S. full-service brokerage, has created an operating committee under President Stan O'Neal
and without Chief Executive David Komansky, according to an internal memo.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020211/n11344944_2.html

 

Merrill hires three foreign exchange traders (Reuters Securities)
Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. said on Monday it hired three foreign exchange traders, boosting its global currency trading operations
even as the Wall Street firm scales back in other areas.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020211/n11148118_2.html

 

J. P. Morgan Seems to Feel the Ripples (The New York Times)
..." said James Ellman, who runs the Merrill Lynch Global Financial Services Fund, which owns J. P. Morgan shares. Ms...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nyt/20020212/bs_nyt/j__p__morgan_seems_to_feel_the_ripples

 

Not Your Typical Fidelity Manager Departures (Morningstar.com)
...Merrill Lynch and the former Kemper family (which was absorbed into Zurich Scudder) provide two examples...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/020212/13194.html

 

US cattle group backs Republican meat packer study (Reuters Securities)
... the farmer-owned cooperative Farmland Industries and privately owned Cargill Inc. Wythe Willey, the new president of the National
Cattlemen's Beef Association,...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020211/n11158305_1.html

 

Dundee Precious Metals Launches New Website And Commences Daily Pricing (CCN Newswire)
... Precious is a Toronto Stock Exchange listed investment company, managed by Dynamic Mutual Funds Ltd., a subsidiary of Dundee
Wealth Management Inc., providing investors with an opportunity...... related investments with the principal objectives of capital
appreciation and the provision of a hedge against long term inflation....

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/020211/vbmz7klraxfn_3qxdwb4ww_1.html

 

DAILY BRIEFING -- Is Global Crossing Double-Crossing Investors? (Business Week)
...``Accounting isn't black or white, its gray,'' says David Mersereau, an investment adviser representing more than 50 Global Crossing
investors with nearly 600,......``breached fiduciary duties'' by not seeking alternatives that would have resulted in more money for
investors.......``Global Crossing is obligated to consider alternative offers from other investors....

http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/020212/xmld7cqkj7u9yx_ogxmt_w_1.html

 

FTSE closes up, Rolls stalls on accounting nerves (Reuters Securities)
...MAN Group rose 3.9 percent while Schroders put on 0.6 percent....

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020211/l1163838_3.html

 

From the Los Angeles Times THE FALL OF ENRON An Edge to Enron's Lobbying Strategy
WASHINGTON -- Jeffrey K. Skilling was visiting Capitol Hill to press the case for energy deregulation. It was September 1999, and Enron Corp. was the darling of Wall Street.

http://chicagotribune.com/business/la-000010594feb11.story

 

Preventing another Enron
Blood is in the water in Washington as Congress encircles Enron. The public thrashing of company officers has begun, but Congress also needs to focus on institutional reforms that could keep a similar collapse from happening.

http://www.alltheweb.com/go/11/H/news/http/www.sptimes.com/2002/02/12/Opinion/Preventing_another_En.shtml

 

John's Comments

 

The stock market rally yesterday helped O-Fund manager Mark Brown recoup some of his earlier losses as his O-Fund climbed to a loss of just $13,940 as of the close yesterday.  My randomly picked O-Fund closed with a gain of $88.13 since the start of this exercise a week and a half ago.  Barry Viljoen's O-Fund shows a gain of $1736.88 as of yesterday's close and Bill Wynne's O-Fund was showing a loss of $8092.50.

 

The equivalent X-Fund values would be:

 

Brown        $861

Lothian        $1001

Viljoen        $1017

Wynne        $919

 

X-Fund 1 yesterday only traded 1 contract and closed at 998.

X-Fund 2 traded 3 contracts yesterday and closed at 1004.

 

*************

 

Grain trading this morning was delayed due to a problem with order routing systems.  Electronic Clerk devices in the CBOT financial room were also affected, but trade has continued so far.

 

*************

 

One area where I feel a deficiency in my industry education is in learning the nicknames or slang for the new contracts introduced and spreads involving those contracts.  For examples, the S&Ps are called SPOOZ.  We have Soybeans, which go as beans, but when they are spread versus the meal and oil it is the crush.  Trading Crude versus heating oil and unleaded gas is a CRACK spread.  The CRB is the CRAB, but what is the new SPCI contract?  I just don't know.

 

How about the X-Funds?  What if I want to trade the X-Fund Spread?  What is that? The symbols for the first two X-Funds are X and Y, which kind of sounds like a chromosome thing. 

 

We have Spiders and QQQs, or Qs, and Diamonds.  Think of all the ETFs and narrow based indices coming soon. Where will the names for all those products come from?

 

The Goldman Sachs index has the Goldman Roll.  Many contracts have Rollover, which is when the front month changes from one month to the next and traders need to spread their existing contracts into the new spot month.  Is there an equivalent term for the new SPCI contract?  I just don't know. 

 

There are several slang terms for the spreads down on the CBOT trading floor.  For example:

 

Ten Years versus Bonds are NOBs.

Ten Years versus Five Years are FITs, pronounced Fights.

Five Years versus Two Years are TOFs

Two Years versus Bonds are TUBs.

Municipal Bonds versus Bonds are MOBs

Muni Bonds versus Ten Years are MUTs

Muni Bond versus Five Years at MUFs

 

There are some others, but I may be wrong about the names.  I think the Ten Year versus the Agencies was the TAG and the Ten Years versus the Swaps is the TOS.  But I could be wrong. But what about the new Swaps at the CME versus the Eurodollars?  What are the names of those spreads?

 

Of course in the old days we all traded the TED spread, the difference between the Tbills and the Eurodollars.  Today we have STRIPS and all kinds of packages in the Eurodollars that have names that I am not privy to. I don't stand in the Eurodollar pit or trade them that much, so I just don't have a need to know the names.

 

Why is this important?  Well, as more markets go electronic the ability to trade those spreads electronically will increase.  I would like to be able to create nicknames on my screen to identify the spreads.  We have enough symbols and are getting new ones all the time. With the introduction of Single Stock Futures, this is only going to get worse.

 

One of my dreams for a trading platform is to be able to assign specific names to specific contracts or spreads.  So if someone wants to put the March NOB up on the screen, the trader can label the trade as such.  Or they could call it the CBOT-MARCH-NOTES-OVER-BONDS if they wanted.

 

One of the functionalities of the TruExchange matching engine that I liked was the ability to create spread relationships among electronically traded contracts.  The system administrator would simply respond to the request of a trader and create the Feeder Cattle Corn Spread on a 2 by 5 basis.  What the name of that spread is I don't know, but it would be easy to create with the TruExchange matching engine.

 

Spreading of electronic markets is the next great trading frontier.  Pairs trading of Single Stock Futures will be one area where electronic spreading will be useful.  Of course, trading Eurodollar strips and packages will also be a huge trade for the electronic matching engine that can replicate the ease and functionality of the pit.

 

The difference between trading spreads in the pit and trading on the screen is that traders don't need to have the common lexicon anymore.  Since they are not communicating face to face, the slang and lexicon of the trading pit is not needed.  And the increase in the number of contracts, spreading opportunities and distributed electronic trading population indicates that the value of use of common slang terms will diminish.  This means that traders will need to have the ability to name the spreads and contracts themselves on their trading screens. 

 

Perhaps some of those names will gain acceptance in new virtual trading communities, much like they do in the trading pit.  But traders will need that functionality to help simplify and increasingly complex trading world.

 

IMHO.

 

Regards,

 

John J. Lothian

 

The Price Futures Group, Inc.

Electronic Trading Division

Chicago Board of Trade Building

141 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 1340A

Chicago, IL 60604

Phone: 1-800-713-0215 or 312-648-2426

Fax: 312-902-6437

Web site: www.pricegroupetd.com

E-Mail: JLothian@pricegroup.com

 


Disclaimer: This letter is strictly the opinion of its writer, and not necessarily those of The Price Group and its management, and is
intended solely for informative purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an
offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. Information is obtained from sources
believed to be reliable, but is in no way  guaranteed.  No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future
conditions are attempted.

 

Futures and options trading involves risk.  Past results are no indication of future performance.

 


Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below.  No representations are being made that nay account will or is
likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.  In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results
subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.  One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit
of hindsight.  In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in
actual trading.  For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely
affect actual trading results.  There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot
be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.